Real-time momentum indicator for labor market trends.
A highly accurate recession indicator that tracks changes in the unemployment rate momentum rather than absolute levels, offering earlier signals than traditional metrics.
Triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.50% above its lowest point in the previous 12 months.
Values near 0 indicate a robust, tightening labor market.
Values between 0.20-0.40 suggest cooling but stable conditions.
Values >= 0.50 signal a negative inflection in the economic cycle.
Has identified every modern recession with high accuracy and minimal lag, including the rapid onset of the 2020 contraction.
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