VIX (Volatility Index)

Measures market expectations of near-term volatility.

Overview

The VIX represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from S&P 500 options, it is a primary gauge of market sentiment and stability.

How It Works

Calculated using S&P 500 index option prices, aggregating weighted prices of puts and calls. Higher premiums for options protection result in a higher VIX reading, indicating expected market variance.

How to Interpret

Bullish Signal

VIX below 15 suggests market stability and a conducive environment for steady growth.

Neutral Signal

VIX between 15-20 reflects standard market conditions with moderate volatility.

Bearish Signal

VIX above 30 indicates heightened uncertainty and potential for significant market swings.

Historical Context

Historically, the VIX spikes during periods of significant stress (2008, 2020) and compresses during prolonged bull markets (2017).

Data Information

Data Source
CBOE via FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
Update Frequency
Real-time during market hours

Limitations

  • Measures implied (expected) volatility, not realized (past) volatility
  • Specific to the S&P 500 index
  • Can remain elevated or compressed for extended periods

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