Market Cap to GDP

Broad valuation metric comparing total equity value to the economy.

Overview

Often called the "Buffett Indicator," this ratio compares the total value of the US stock market to the Gross Domestic Product, offering a macro view of valuation levels.

How It Works

Divides the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index by US GDP. A ratio of 100% implies parity between financial asset values and economic output.

How to Interpret

Bullish Signal

Ratios below 80% have historically presented favorable long-term entry points.

Neutral Signal

80-100% represents valuations consistent with historical averages.

Bearish Signal

Ratios above 140% suggest valuations have outpaced economic output significantly.

Historical Context

Peaked near 190% in 2021 and dropped to ~50% in 2009. The long-term trend has drifted higher due to globalization and technology margins.

Data Information

Data Source
Wilshire Associates + Federal Reserve
Update Frequency
Daily (Market Cap), Quarterly (GDP)

Limitations

  • GDP is a lagging indicator updated quarterly
  • Does not account for overseas revenue of US corporations
  • Interest rate regimes heavily influence "fair" valuation levels
  • May be structurally higher in the digital economy era

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